Mount Holyoke College Democrats

Obama's Momentum, Hillary's Desperation.

2007-03-02T07:52:00.000-05:00

http://www.vote.com/magazine/columns/dickmorris/column60482665.phtml
OBAMA SURGING PAST CLINTON, AMONG OTHERS E-mail this column to a friend!

By DICK MORRIS & EILEEN MCGANN

Published on FoxNews.com on March 1, 2007.

Why did Hillary's pet attack dog Howard Wolfson attack Barack Obama? Was it:

(a) Bill's anger at having his presidential record scrutinized
(b) A concentrated effort to lure Obama into a mud fight
(c) A desire to move attention away from her refusal to apologize for backing the Iraq War

Now the answer emerges. It was:

(d) Because Barack Obama is surging in the polls.

The Washington Post reports that Obama has gone from an anemic 17 percent of the vote among Democratic primary electorate to a more robust 24 percent, while the former First Lady dropped from 41 percent to 36 percent. (Edwards, going no place fast, was mired at 14 percent in third place). So the Post has Hillary's lead cut in half from 24 percent to 12 percent.

Pollster John Zogby finds a similar trend in a February 22-24 poll with Obama surging from 14 percent to 25 percent in two weeks during which time he has Hillary gaining only 4 points from 29 percent to 33 percent. Again, Edwards runs third at 12 percent.

When you are dropping in the polls, what do you do?

(a) You attack your opponent

Or

(b) If you have a reputation for slash and burn politics like Hillary, you accuse him of attacking you

Hillary's effort to hit Obama with the charge of negative campaigning reflected the Illinois Senator's move up in the polls, a trend her pollsters doubtless caught early in the daily national tracking surveys they are taking.

All this leaves Edwards in a bit of a quandary. Animated by their status as the first woman and the first black to run seriously for the presidency, Hillary and Obama are making the contest for the Democratic nomination an increasingly two-sided affair as Edwards fails to gather momentum.

Interestingly, the Washington Post reports that most of Obama's gains came from African American voters who has lately sided with Hillary, in their January polling by 60-20. Now Obama has turned that around and leads among blacks by 44-33. Of course, 44 percent is a far cry from the 85 percent of the black vote he will need to win, but it's quite a turnaround in the past month.

If it seems early to be focusing on the ups and downs of national polling, consider the expedited calendar for pursuit of the nominations this year and next. Nineteen states, with half of America's population, have moved or are moving their primaries up to February 5, 2008, barely three weeks after the Iowa caucuses and two after the New Hampshire primary. Among these states are California, Florida, Illinois, Michigan, New Jersey, North Carolina and Georgia.

The effect will be to choose a nominee within a three-week window in the first days of 2008. To be able to mount a campaign in at least half the country by February 5, 2008, a candidate will have to amass a huge war chest in 2007. Anybody who does not have a huge bank account, perhaps as much as $100 million by January of 2008 isn't going to win the nomination.

This steep fund raising curve makes it imperative to be the front-runner in the fall of 2006. Only the leader in each party's pack of candidates will be able to make the financial cut. Edwards needs to move up to be viable, while Obama seems en route to making it a real two-way race.

On the Republican side, the Washington Post has Rudy Giuliani adding to his formidable lead over the fading John McCain, leading 44-21 with former House Speaker Newt Gingrich at 15 percent and Mitt Romney, whose campaign appears doomed, at 4 percent. Rudy had been nursing only a 34-27 lead over McCain last month.

If Rudy continues his current lead, he will be unstoppable, especially in view of the expedited primary calendar. And if Obama keeps up his momentum, it will be an interesting battle between the first woman and the first black for the Democratic nomination.

If you want to receive free copies of all of Dick Morris' and Eileen McGann's commentaries, sign up at www.dickmorris.com.

***Copyright Eileen McGann and Dick Morris 2007***

2007-02-17T20:25:00.001-05:00

test

Inform Thyself

2006-04-04T10:53:00.000-04:00

Check out this posting on another liberal blog about the Academic Bill of Rights:
http://www.teambio.org/2006/04/do-you-know-sec-112-of-hr-609/
What are your thoughts? Is this simply an effort to guarantee free discussion, or a project to push American universities to the right?

South Dakota's abortion ban

2006-03-02T10:49:00.000-05:00

South Dakota recently passed a law banning all abortions except for when the mother's health is in danger. State legislators hope to ultimately take the law to the Supreme Court and challenge the Roe v. Wade decision that legalized abortion. Do you think they will succeed? How do you feel about anti-abortion legislature and the abortion debate as a whole? How do you feel that this move will change (or not change) the current political climate?

Dubai: Why?

2006-02-23T11:17:00.000-05:00

Yesterday the news that President Bush had approved the management of six American ports by a Dubai company escalated into a huge debate that touches on several issues, ranging from the fact that the company in question has an excellent record, to Americans' post-9/11 fear of Arab-based companies, to the fact that port security is still essentially a joke and also still controlled by the American government. What are your gut reactions to this news?
PS: Here's an interesting piece on the situation from the New York Times:
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/02/23/politics/23assess.html?hp&ex=1140757200&en=c98f41020e08d417&ei=5094&partner=homepage

getting on the offensive

2006-02-09T11:04:00.000-05:00

With the 2006 elections just a few months away, it's time for the Democrats to get a game plan together. We already know that the Republicans have done a poor job with the economy, the war, women's rights, and generally keeping their activities legal.

But how do we, as Democrats, change things? What are our ideas? Pretend you're running for public office: how do we handle Iraq from here on out? How can we restore fiscal responsibility? How about the environment, foreign oil, and reproductive rights? List any and all ideas that you'd stick on your Democratic platform right here!

Discussion Topic: State of the Union

2006-02-03T15:56:00.000-05:00

Jabber away, kids: what were your reactions to the President's State of the Union address? how about the Democrats' response?